231 replies to this topic

[Malcolm Robinson]

No disrespect Malcolm but where did this 0.05% come in to it or was that just an example?

I don’t really know how it was worked out but I would imagine it represents a figure small enough not to make too big an impact onto trades but collectively would add up to a mind boggling amount.

http://robinhoodtax.org.uk/

[Malcolm Robinson]

sizsells, on 26 February 2010 - 06:05 AM, said:

All I have said is these people/institutions should be held accountable INNOCENT folks are suffering and its wrong and immoral it,s ok reeling off figures we can all do that.... its estimated that 33% of the population are connected to the building industry in one way or another, it looks like its all we have left as everything else has been allowed to go but what does this government do about it........... oh yes they SAY they are going to build 1 million homes ...... erm wheres the money coming from....... words words and more words....... its should actualy be bolloks bolloks and more bolloks........I have a friend who supplies a national house builder and they cannot afford to pay him because yes the houses are sold but folks cannot get mortguages consequentally he cannot get paid........
Dont suppose any of that 100 billion is going spare is it

As for the housing industry problems, yes gov have released money to get house building going again. However the initial figures quoted have now been almost halved. For my money this would be exactly the sort of applied Keynesian economics we should be looking at if we are to use public money to stimulate and shore up our economy in times of recession.
BTW, NCC are included in this funding and will build 100 (I think?) new houses. I have questioned NCC directors about this and they said they will be using a third party to deliver. I think that is a mistake and we should be using this initiative to provide local jobs, keep this money in the local economy (instead of seeing the profits disappear down to a board of directors in London) and deliver quality apprentiships (which themselves could provide yet more funding!). Still haven’t got a reply to another question, will these houses provide rented social housing or be sold off?

[Symptoms]

Είμαι βέβαιος ότι το πολύ σκωτσέζικο Πολύφημος μας που το Κύκλωψ θα φροντίσει τα ενδιαφέροντά μας.

For those who didn't read The Greats ...

"I am sure that our very own Scottish Polyphemus the Cyclops will look after our interests."

[sizsells]

Malcolm Robinson, on 26 February 2010 - 09:33 AM, said:

As for the housing industry problems, yes gov have released money to get house building going again. However the initial figures quoted have now been almost halved. For my money this would be exactly the sort of applied Keynesian economics we should be looking at if we are to use public money to stimulate and shore up our economy in times of recession.
BTW, NCC are included in this funding and will build 100 (I think?) new houses. I have questioned NCC directors about this and they said they will be using a third party to deliver. I think that is a mistake and we should be using this initiative to provide local jobs, keep this money in the local economy (instead of seeing the profits disappear down to a board of directors in London) and deliver quality apprentiships (which themselves could provide yet more funding!). Still haven’t got a reply to another question, will these houses provide rented social housing or be sold off?

Would that be "local" jobs for "local" people just like the ones supplied to do our new market area? our "local" boundarys have now expanded to Scotland, apart from two lads from Beaty Road
I,m not having a go at you or your politics you are are obviously very well informed and a lot of what you have to say on here I must agree makes sense, however I,m a bit more cynical than yourself I don,t trust or believe a SINGLE word this government/party national or local says or in fact writes...

[Malcolm Robinson]

Sizsells,
I wouldn’t normally promote the idea of direct interference in any commercial market, the labour market being one, but these are exceptional times which require exceptional solutions. Also given the preferred route our national politicians have taken intervention in the market is almost a necessity. So yes in this case I think any organisation which is funded through localised public subscription has a duty of care towards its subscribers and as such should consider how it can best fit their needs into its service delivery and considering present circumstances if that means a certain discrimination then........put it like this if there are two options, one being keep all the money and deliver in house, the other being give this money to a national house builder and only see the profits appear on a PLC balance sheet at an AGM in London, there would only seem to be one on?
Having said that, and before GGG jumps down my neck about public sector waste and incompetence, It would need a certain level of professionalism to deliver which is maybe lacking at present!
Don’t for one minute think I believe everything we are told by the elected intelligencia, I don’t. There is an old adage which still holds water..........believe half of what you see and nothing of what you hear!

[sizsells]

Malcolm Robinson, on 27 February 2010 - 02:34 PM, said:

There is an old adage which still holds water..........believe half of what you see and nothing of what you hear!

Also Malcolm another old Quote Which is so particularily apt for this Labour government......You can fool some of the people some of the time and some of the people all the time but you cannot fool ALL the people all the time.

And instead of paying out huge dividends for failure to folks who have failed i.e RBS as an example put the money into the economy which they would have being paid it amounts to millions or worldwide BILLIONS probably a bit more..... are my ideas to simplistic? and if these individuals who fail complain of not getting their bonus and threaten to leave their employers .... let the buggers go I say.... after all the economy and their employers worldwide will be better off without them oh and so might WE

[Malcolm Robinson]

That’s the point sizsells, we have paid billions into the banking sector as re-capitalisation only to see the banks sitting on it. We put 46BILLION into RBS and 23BILLION into Lloyds and they have called it shoring up their balance sheets. They are now back into the gambling game and the Gov won’t do anything about it because they want them privatised ASAP so get the share prices up.
We have then had to start printing the money, which effectively devalues and/or leaves us with massive debt one way or another, so we can buy the debt the government need to supposedly invest in public infrastructure. Its like heads you win, tails I loose. It’s a halfway house which gives a resemblance of stability for a short time but which must at some point be lanced like a septic boil! They are paying the mortgage with their credit card and it’s us who will have to pick up the credit card bills, which by the way haven’t landed on the door mats yet, but they will!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Symptoms, on 26 February 2010 - 05:49 PM, said:

Είμαι βέβαιος ότι το πολύ σκωτσέζικο Πολύφημος μας που το Κύκλωψ θα φροντίσει τα ενδιαφέροντά μας.

For those who didn't read The Greats ...

"I am sure that our very own Scottish Polyphemus the Cyclops will look after our interests."

Bit more contemporary:
'Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it.'

[Malcolm Robinson]

I might be posting this on the wrong topic but then maybe not.........

Now all you financial gurus. Here is an example of how to solve the country's monetary problems.


A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A 50 QUID NOTE

It's a slow day in a little northern town called N------ham. The single mothers are packed tight into the coffee bars.

There's a chill in the air, and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit..............

On this particular day a banker is driving through town. He stops at a local hotel and lays a £50 note on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night.

As soon as the man walks upstairs, the hotel owner grabs the £50 and runs
next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

The butcher takes the £50 and runs down the street to settle his debt
to the farmer.

The farmer takes the £50 and heads off to pay his bill at the
supplier of his animal feed.

The guy at the Farmer's Co-op takes the £50 and runs to pay his debt
to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has
had to offer her "services" on credit.

The prostitute rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the
hotel owner.

The hotel proprietor then places the £50 note back on the counter so the
banker will not suspect anything.

At that moment the banker comes down the stairs, picks up the £50 and states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the £50 and leaves town.

No one produced anything. No one earned anything.

However, everyone concerned is now out of debt and now looks to the future
with great optimism.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, could be how the United Kingdom 's Government is conducting business today.

[sizsells]

I found this and thought you might be interested.


interesting

[Malcolm Robinson]

Like it sizsells, when you are talking about a pack of cards built on quicksand in an earthquake zone someone blarting at the wrong time could produce cataclysmic effects!
Remember that 0.1% (4th quarter GDP estimate) which got us out of recession........well it’s been revised up to 0.3%. Sounds like better news but the 3rd quarter has also been revised from -0.2% down to -0.3% which leaves us exactly where over the 2 quarters?

[Malcolm Robinson]

Has the UK already lost its AAA debt rating? Looks like the markets have already pronounced on that with German and French bonds yielding 3.10% and 3.42% while ours yield 4.03%. (There is talk about the next tranche of Greek bonds yielding up to 7% and remember they are in the same currency!) Even Italy 4 places below the UK in terms of international credit ratings weigh in with 3.97% so it looks as if the markets have re-rated UK bonds for themselves! That isn’t as bad as a couple of weeks ago when they touched 4.30% so Merv’s statement about maybe buying more might have had the desired impact. Interesting to see if that is fleshed out next Thursday when the Monetary Policy Committee meet.
The slide in the pound exchange rates must be worrying but just maybe the Pru hedged their takeover of AIG which would distort the market in the short term? However this will impact onto the inflation figures, so much of the raw materials we buy are priced in $’s and of course we import too many finished goods from the likes of China!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Well people seem to be reading this stuff so I will keep it going.

The reason I picked Greece to watch it because I think it could be what is in store for the UK once we get someone into No10 who will actually tackle our budget deficits instead of inflating them. The euro question complicates the ease of comparison somewhat but essentially........
So Greece has agreed a new austerity budget to improve her public sector fiscal position and that amounts to a 4.8 billion euro hit. It is split between higher sales taxes on stuff like baccy and booze and public sector cuts, notably civil servant pay. As a part of these moves VAT has gone from 19% to 21%, remember these figures we might just hear the same sort of thing in the near future! That glass of ouzo any Greek bound holidaymakers were looking forward to in the beachside tavernas this summer has just up significantly. These new measures, taken with the discounted original ones, should add up to the about 4% cut in deficit needed. The Greek government have now begun trying to get their house in order and we should now look to the ECB to see how they will repay that commitment. This has already had a reaction by the markets and Greek debt has fallen to 6.03% already with a spread below 3% over Bunds. Slowly slowly catchy monkey! A word of caution, for the initiative to really succeed Greece needs economic growth which might not be possible in the short to medium term as identified by BNP. (That’s not the BNP you love so much monsta!)
Problems, these are always problems within euroland doesn’t matter how sensible a suggestion is, the designated euro banker, Germany, is actually forbidden by its own laws from large scale intervention. Herr Issing, now currency strategist for the ECB and formally council member for the Bundesbank, says that a decision way back in 1993 precludes Germany from anything resembling a bail out or fiscal help for any euro member state, even to the point of issuing a guarantee for another member state to stabilise any fluctuations in the euro. So it might not be a case of the EU leaders not knowing what to do or how to do it, it could well be a case of them not seeing this eventuality at all and therefore not preparing for it, which should bring into question the competence of all concerned!
We could look across the pond at out transatlantic cousins for inspiration and especially at the Californian scenario, which in some ways is like the Greek tragedy playing out in Europe now, but there is one thing missing, political union. The yanks have political union which leads to fiscal union; the Europeans have fiscal union which they hoped would lead to political union. It’s a bit like the tail trying to wag the dog!
As I am writing this up Greece has announced she is going to issue new debt into the markets. The yield is, today, 6.11%. So the question for internal buyers is this....... do you take the debt at a fantastic yield and hope if anything goes wrong the IMF or the ECB will underwrite it or is Greece a basket case with no reasonable prospects of repayment?

[Malcolm Robinson]

Something for the chartists amongst us............

Just look at Italy on the pie chart!

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[Malcolm Robinson]

Just had a leaflet though the door claiming the housing market has turned, ‘It’s moving again’. This is the second of our illustrious, if not overtly optimistic for reasons of self indulgence, locally based estate agents to proclaim their take on the market. Well here is another take.......
Remember that pesky sub prime stuff which caused the financial world to implode and how it wasn’t really anything to do with us? Our bankers unknowingly bought into the junk bonds is the current excuse. (BTW the same bonds which used fractal chaos theory to prove their valuations!!!!) Anyway just come across some rather revealing stats on the issue. Only about 44% of the book was for residential properties which means 56% was for commercial, that’s shopping centres, shops, offices etc. This stuff is not written the same way as residential mortgages are, commercial ones of this sort are given 3-7 year terms. We are primarily talking USA here but banks worldwide own this paper. So this stuff is close to becoming due for repayment soon and what state is the commercial market in? Look around Bedlington for an example! If it cannot be repaid because of non lets, and remember we are in or supposedly emerging from recession, this will rebound and this time we have no safety net, we have used everything including the kitchen sink to save the residential stuff! How can banks generate capital receipts, impose very tight default terms on lending then fire sale repossessions and as they must now own by far and away the vast proportion of houses in the UK at a time of limited economic opportunities watch out if you are relying on the governments soft touch for mortgagees in default! The markets turning again, yep but it might be another financial tsunami coming our way!
I hate to say this but GGG’s apocalyptical ‘depression not recession’ might well be true after all.

[Stephen]

The Germans have come up with a helpful suggestion for Greece - sell their islands

Maybe we can sell the Isle of Wight?

[Malcolm Robinson]

Stephen, on 04 March 2010 - 08:46 PM, said:

The Germans have come up with a helpful suggestion for Greece - sell their islands

Maybe we can sell the Isle of Wight?

They have also bought a third of that Greek bond issue. Merkel says it isn’t bailing Greece out only helping a fellow EU member. Well that’s one way to get around your own regulations I suppose. I wonder if they have the same appetite when there are 4 times the amount on offer?

[Fourgee™]

They could sell the rest of the Elgin Marbles

[Malcolm Robinson]

Fourgee™, on 05 March 2010 - 12:07 PM, said:

They could sell the rest of the Elgin Marbles

Thought we just pinched them.........

[Malcolm Robinson]

Interesting snippet at the Chilcot inquiry.......GB has just said he was running the UK economy (Chancellor at the time) by having current accounts met by taxation and capital accounts by borrowing. OK but that means at the peak of the economic cycle with historical low levels of unemployment and record tax and VAT receipts there was nothing left in the pot to use for capital investment once general running costs were met? Hardly an inspiring balance sheet!